India’s long run of high Russian oil imports is expected to slow sharply in December as tougher Western sanctions make trading harder and riskier for refiners. December imports are projected to fall to 600,000–650,000 barrels per day, the lowest level in at least three years. This marks a major shift from November, when India imported nearly 1.87 million barrels per day, one of the highest monthly volumes, as refiners rushed to secure shipments before sanctions kicked in fully.
The sudden drop is mainly driven by stricter sanctions imposed by the United States, European Union and the United Kingdom. These sanctions target major Russian energy companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, and have restricted global shipping, insurance and payment channels related to Russian crude. With these tighter rules, several Indian refiners now find it risky or unviable to continue buying large volumes.
Key refiners such as Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) and HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) have already paused fresh purchases of Russian oil. Reliance Industries Ltd, one of India’s biggest buyers, is expected to process only the cargoes it had committed to before the sanctions deadline.
The only major exception is Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft, which may continue to import Russian crude because of its closer ties. However, overall volumes from Russia are set to shrink significantly.
India had sharply increased Russian oil purchases since 2022 because of steep discounts. But the new sanctions have narrowed price benefits and increased compliance challenges. As a result, refiners are now turning to non-Russian suppliers in the Middle East and Africa to secure stable deliveries.
